Making Futures Work

Spis treści ebooka

• Foreword
• Preface
  • Who This Book Is For
  • Format of the Book
    • Methods
    • Stories from the Field
  • Terminology
  • OReilly Online Learning
  • How to Contact Us
  • Acknowledgments
• 1. A Fascination with the Future
  • Survival of the Fittest
  • Meteorology
  • Mapping the Unknown
  • Imagining the Future
  • In Closing
• 2. A Primer on Process and Approach
  • Stage 0: Preparing for Futures Work
    • Understanding Your Audience
    • The Futures Mindset
    • Framing the Problem
    • Framing the Project
  • Stage 1: Strategic Foresight
    • Trends and Futures Intelligence
    • Analyzing Trends
    • Scenarios and Implications
  • Stage 2: Designing Futures
    • Types of Futures Design
    • Designing the Ideation Workshop
  • Stage 3: Designing Strategy
    • Planning for Strategy
    • Measuring Success
  • Integrating and Advocating for Futures in an Organization
• 1. Preparing for Futures Work
• 3. Understanding Your Audience
  • The Diagnostic
  • Situational Awareness
    • Why Does Your Audience Want to Look into the Future, and What Are Their Goals?
    • What Kind of Project Will Futures Be Applied To?
    • How Are They Doing Short- and Long-Term Strategies? And Who Is in Charge of That Function Today?
    • What Has or Hasnt Worked in the Past?
    • How Much Do They Know About Futures Thinking?
    • Who Are Your Potential Allies or Skeptics?
    • What or Who Are the Potential Barriers or Threats to the Success of the Project?
    • How Open Is the Organization to Change, Innovation, or Wild Ideas?
    • What Are the Vocabulary and Artifacts They Are Using for Strategy Today?
    • How Do They Think About the Future Today?
  • Methods for Situational Awareness
    • Sailboat Exercise
    • SWOT
    • Premortem
    • Canvases
    • Causal Layered Analysis
  • In Closing
• 4. The Futures Mindset
  • A Mindset and an Attitude
  • Explain the Characteristics of a Futurist
  • The Future Is Always VUCA
  • The Futures Cone
  • Analogies of a Journey
  • Recognize and Embrace Fears and Failures
  • The Futures Triangle
    • The Weight of the Past
    • The Pull of the Future
    • The Push of the Present
  • Show Relevant and Appropriate Examples
  • In Closing
• 5. Framing the Problem
  • Focusing Your Research
    • The Focal Issue
    • Time Horizon
    • Geography/Region
    • Stakeholders
    • Demographics/Population Segment
  • Domain Maps
  • Problem Framing Canvases
  • In Closing
• 6. Framing the Project
  • Project Logistics
    • Map Out the Project Timeline and Budget
    • Plan Your Key Activities
    • Secure Your Allies and Champions
    • Align on the Deliverables
    • Set Up Workspaces, Repositories, and Communication Preferences
    • Determine Process Success Metrics
  • Organizing Your Team
    • Product or Project Manager
    • Designers
    • Strategists and Analysts
    • Trend Researchers/Analysts
    • Researchers
    • Domain Experts
    • Marketing and Communications
    • Members Versus Collaborators Versus Allies
  • In Closing
• 2. Strategic Foresight
• 7. Fundamentals of Foresight
  • Strategic Foresight
  • World Building
    • Horizon Scanning
    • Historical Analysis
    • Bill Sharpes Three Horizons
    • Futures Intelligence
    • Using STEEP as a Multivariate Lens
    • Trends, Drivers, and Signals
      • Types of trends
      • Quantitative versus qualitative intelligence
  • Prioritizing Trends and Other Futures Intelligence
    • Probability Versus Impact Matrix
  • In Closing
• 8. World Building with Scenarios
  • Scenario Formats
    • Narratives
    • Illustrated Images and Scenes
    • Immersive and Interactive Experiences
  • Jim Dators Scenario Archetypes
  • The Axes of Uncertainty
  • Future Personas
  • Implication Mapping
  • Sequencing Methods
  • In Closing
• 3. Designing Futures
• 9. Designing Futures
  • Speculative Design
  • Types and Formats of Futures Design
    • Critical Design
    • Design Fiction
    • Science Fiction Prototyping
  • Speculative Design for Discourse and Strategy
    • Using Speculative Design for Provocation, Discourse, Critique, or Debate
    • Using Speculative Design for Strategy
  • Prototyping the Future Today
  • In Closing
• 10. Designing the Ideation Workshop
  • Preparing for the Workshop
    • Collect and Prepare Your Research Artifacts for Ideation
      • Pre-reads
      • In-workshop reminders
    • Identify Who Will Be Participating and Prepare Them for the Session
    • Design the Ideation Experience (Selecting the Methods)
  • Ideation Methods
    • Rapid Ideation
    • Prompts
    • Narrative-Based Prompts
    • Headlines and Stories from the Future
    • Immersive Experiences
  • Using Illustrations for Future Visioning
  • Using Generative AI Tools for Future Visioning
  • In Closing
• 4. Designing Strategy
• 11. Strategy
  • Preparing for Strategy
  • Planning for the Activities
    • Try to Use What Is Already in Place to Measure Success
    • Determine Whether New Metrics Are Necessary
    • Invite the Appropriate Stakeholders
    • Choose the Frameworks or Methods Youll Use for Planning
    • Backcasting
  • Long-Term, Medium-Term, and Short-Term Planning
    • McKinseys Three Horizons
    • Jump-Starting Innovation
  • Measuring Success
    • Innovation Accounting
    • Indicator Monitoring
  • Implementation and Delivery
  • In Closing
• 12. Integrating Futures into Your Organization
  • From the Inside
    • Youll Be the First to Introduce Futures to Your Team or Organization
      • Deliver a presentation
      • Find supporters and champions
      • Invite an external speaker
      • Distribute or post inspiration internally
      • Have a lunch meeting (brown-bag it)
      • Conduct a workshop
      • Advocate for a project
      • Use a method on a current project
    • Youve Established Some Support Within Your Group or Team and Want to Introduce Futures to Other Groups Within the Organization
    • Youre Hired to Lead a Team or to Be Part of a Team That Is or Will Be Intentionally Practicing Futures
    • A Strategic Function or Business Unit Already Exists That May or May Not Use Futures, and You Would Like to Collaborate or Introduce It to Them
  • From the Outside
    • You Are Hired Specifically to Use Futures on a Project
    • Youre Hired to Train an Organization or Team
    • An Organization Is Curious About Futures and Is Asking You to Introduce the Topic
  • Where and Why Futures Succeeds or Fails
    • How Futures Fail (Collapse Scenarios)
      • Change or loss of leadership
      • Focus on survival
      • Lack of funding
      • Competition with current strategic processes
      • Refusal of other business units to adopt the plan
      • Disintegration of excitement or change in interests
      • Overly complex or dogmatic processes or practitioners
    • How Futures Succeeds (Transformational Scenarios)
      • Strategic leadership that is invested in long-term thinking
      • Teams that are interested in more strategic thinking
      • Innovation and growth initiatives
      • Long product cycles
      • A product or service intent on large-scale change
  • In Closing
• Afterword
  • Next Steps: Continuing Your Journey
  • Apply Futures Thinking to Your Own Life
  • Complementary Approaches
  • New Responsibilities
• Glossary
• Index

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