Baseball Hacks. Tips & Tools for Analyzing and Winning with Statistics Joseph Adler

Spis treści książki

• Baseball Hacks
• A Note Regarding Supplemental Files
• Credits
  • About the Author
  • Contributors
  • Acknowledgments
• Preface
  • Why Baseball Hacks?
  • How to Use This Book
  • How This Book Is Organized
  • Conventions Used in This Book
  • Using Code Examples
  • How to Contact Us
  • Got a Hack?
  • Safari Enabled
• 1. Basics of Baseball
  • Hacks 17: Introduction
    • Baseball 101
  • Score a Baseball Game
    • Traditional Scoring
      • Record starting players names.
      • Record plays during the game.
      • Record substitutions.
      • Record other information.
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Make a Box Score from a Score Sheet
    • The Official Rules for Scoring
    • Calculating a Box Score from a Score Sheet
      • Step 1: Draw columns for names, at bats, runs, hits, and anything else.
      • Step 2: Copy the batters names.
      • Step 3: Count statistics for each batter.
      • Step 4: Count statistics for each pitcher.
      • Step 5: Prove the box score.
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Keep Score, Project ScoresheetStyle
    • The Contents of a Play Code
      • Play code structure.
      • Fielding.
      • Type of play.
      • Description.
      • Base running.
      • Example play codes.
      • Pitch codes.
  • Follow Pitches During a Game
    • Following the Pitching Strategy
      • Set up a pitch outside.
      • Follow breaking balls with a fastball.
      • Follow fastballs with a breaking ball.
      • Always throw the same impossible-to-hit pitch.
      • Move the player off the plate.
    • Identifying Pitches
      • Step 1: Watch the umpire for location.
      • Step 2: Watch the catcher for location.
      • Step 3: Look at pitch speeds to determine pitch type.
      • Step 4: Watch what the ball does at the plate.
      • Step 5: Watch the pitcher react to the catchers signals.
      • Step 6: Watch the catchers signals.
  • Follow the Game Online
    • Player Statistics
    • Independent Commentary (Including Blogs)
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Add Baseball Searches to Firefox
    • Adding Search Engines to Firefox
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Find Images of Stadiums
    • Better Pictures and Distances with Google Earth
• 2. Baseball Games from Past Years
  • Hacks 823: Introduction
  • Get and Install MySQL
    • Installation on Windows
      • Step 0: Buy and install a software or hardware firewall.
      • Step 1: Download and unpack the installer.
      • Step 2: Run the Installation wizard.
      • Step 3: Run the Configuration wizard.
    • Testing the Installation
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Get an Access Database of Player and Team Statistics
    • A Player and Team Statistics Database for Microsoft Access
      • Step 1: Download the file.
      • Step 2: Decompress and save the file.
      • Step 3: Open the database file.
      • Step 4: Test the database.
    • The Contents of the Database
  • Get a MySQL Database of Player and Team Statistics
    • Step 1: Download the File
    • Step 2: Decompress the File
    • Step 3: Create the Database
    • Step 4: Import the Database
    • Step 5: Check That Everything Is There
    • The Contents of the Database
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Annual updates.
      • Getting baseball statistics as text files.
  • Make Your Own Stats Book
    • Write the Queries
      • Step 1: Create batters who played in 2004 query.
      • Step 2: Create fielding by games query.
      • Step 3: Create fielding by most frequent position query.
      • Step 4: Create team names query.
      • Step 5: Create batting plus query.
    • Build the Report
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Get Perl
    • Getting and Installing Perl
    • Install the Perl Modules Required in This Book
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Step 1: Download the Cygwin installer.
      • Step 2: Run the Cygwin installer.
      • Step 3: Configure Cygwin.
  • Learn Perl
    • The Basics
      • Statements.
      • Variables.
      • Datatypes.
      • Control structures.
      • Comments.
    • An Example Program
    • Some Not-so-Basic Basics
      • Pattern matching through regular expressions.
      • Subroutines.
      • Modules and packages.
    • Editors
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Get Historical Play-by-Play Data
    • Retrosheet Event Files
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • See Also
  • Make Box Scores or Database Tables from Play-by-Play Data with Retrosheet Tools
    • Running the Tools
      • Preprocessing event files with BEVENT.
    • Chadwick
    • See Also
  • Use SQL to Explore Game Data
    • Talking to Your Database
    • Tables
    • Queries
      • Joins.
      • Aggregates.
      • Subqueries.
      • Saving results in tables.
      • Deleting tables.
    • Running Scripts
    • Getting More Information and Help
  • Use Microsoft Access to Run SQL Queries
    • SQL Queries in Access
    • Changing SQL Queries to Graphical Queries
    • Subqueries in Access
  • Get a GUI for MySQL
    • Other Tools
      • MySQL Administrator.
      • Tora and Toad.
      • Aqua Data Studio.
  • Move Data from a Database to Excel
    • Select the Right Data for a Spreadsheet
    • Running the Hack
      • Moving data from Access to Excel.
      • Moving data from MySQL Query Browser to Excel.
      • Moving data from MySQL to Excel.
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Load Baseball Data into MySQL
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Load Retrosheet Game Logs
    • The Code
  • Make a Historical Play-by-Play Database
    • The Code
      • Fetching the data.
      • Transforming the data.
      • Creating a database import statement.
      • Creating a play-by-play database and tables.
  • Use Regular Expressions to Identify Events
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
• 3. Stats from the Current Season
  • Hacks 2429: Introduction
  • Use Microsoft Excel Web Queries to Get Stats
    • Web Queries
    • Web Query Example: Up-to-Date Park Factors
      • Step 1: Find the data.
      • Step 2: Running the queries.
      • Step 3: Name stuff.
      • Step 4: Create a results table.
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Spider Baseball Sites for Data
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Discover How Live Score Applications Work
    • Use Your Routers Content Filtering Feature
    • Use a Proxy Server
    • Packet Filters
  • Keep Your Stats Database Up-to-Date
    • The Code
      • Create the box score database.
      • The update script.
      • The bootstrapping script.
      • The helping code.
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Get Recent Play-by-Play Data
    • The Code
      • The spider script.
      • The parser script.
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Find Data on Hit Locations
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
• 4. Visualize Baseball Statistics
  • Hacks 3039: Introduction
  • Plot Histograms in Excel
    • The Code
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Get R and R Packages
  • Analyze Baseball with R
    • Calculations in R
    • Assignment in R
    • Arrays
    • Data Frames
    • Comments
    • Functions
    • Graphics in R
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Access Databases Directly from Excel or R
    • Use ODBC in R
    • Use ODBC in Excel
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Load Text Files into R
    • The Code
    • See Also
  • Compare Teams and Players with Lattices
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
  • Compare Teams Using Chernoff Faces
    • The Code
    • Run the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Plot Spray Charts
    • • Step 1: Load the file into a data frame.
      • Step 2: Set up the axes and the diamond.
      • Step 3: Plot matchups.
    • Batter Spray Diagrams
    • Hexagonal Binning
      • Step 1: Get the hexbin package.
      • Step 2: Load the hexbin package.
      • Step 3: Plot the graph.
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Chart Team Stats in Real Time
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Create a batch file to plow through several teams.
      • Still more automation.
      • Dont export individual PNG images.
  • Slice and Dice Teams with Cubes
    • Prerequisites
    • The Code
      • Step 1: Define local cube contents.
      • Step 2: Create the local cube.
      • Step 3: Create a local web application to interact with the cube.
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
• 5. Formulas
  • Hacks 4059: Introduction
    • How I Chose the Formulas
      • Summary Statistics for the Formulas
      • Using Formulas for Fantasy Baseball
      • Who Came Up with These Things?
  • Measure Batting with Batting Average
    • Sample Code
      • Batting average formula.
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution.
      • Box plot.
  • Measure Batting with On-Base Percentage
    • Sample Code
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Batting with SLG
    • The Formula
    • Sample Code
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Batting with OPS
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Power with ISO
    • Sample Code
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Batting with Runs Created
    • The Formula
    • Sample Code
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Histogram and box plot.
  • Measure Batting with Linear Weights
    • Estimating the Weights from an Expected Runs Matrix
    • Palmers Formula
    • Sample Code
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Histogram and box plot.
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Estimate weights with linear regression.
  • Measure Pitching with ERA
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Pitching with WHIP
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Pitching with Linear Weights
    • Sample Code
    • Running the Hack
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Defense with Defensive Efficiency
    • The Formula
    • Sample Code
    • Summary statistics.
      • Distribution in last 10 years (19942003).
      • Distribution and box plot.
  • Measure Pitching with DIPS
    • The Formula
    • Sample Code
      • Last year (2003).
      • Last 10 years (19942003).
      • Last 50 years (19552003).
    • Lucky and Unlucky Players
  • Measure Base Running Through EqBR
    • Equivalent Batter Runs
    • The Code
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Histogram.
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Measure Fielding with Fielding Percentage
    • The Formula
    • Sample Code
  • Measure Fielding with Range Factor
    • Sample Code
      • Summary statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Histogram.
      • Box plot.
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Measure Fielding with Linear Weights
    • The Formula
    • Calculating Fielding Runs
      • Step 1: Calculate league totals.
      • Step 2: Calculate team totals.
      • Step 3: Calculate expected values for each player.
      • Step 4: Calculate fielding runs for each player.
    • Sample Code
    • Summary statistics.
      • Descriptive statistics.
      • Top 10.
      • Distribution and box plot.
    • See Also
  • Measure Park Effects
    • Approaches
      • Requirements for a good park factor.
    • Methodology
    • Sample Code
    • Using Park Factors
      • Park factors for run-based measurements.
      • Park factors for other statistics.
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Enhancements.
      • Compare individual offensive stats (singles, doubles, triples, home runs, etc.).
      • Fancy statistical approaches.
    • See Also
  • Calculate Fan Save Value
    • Saves
      • Saves are subjective.
    • Fan Save Value
      • How does a fan save value compare to the standard save value?
    • Sample Code
    • Using the Fan Save Value Formula
  • Calculate Save Value
    • The Formula
    • Using the Save Value
    • Sample Code
    • Using the Save Value Formula
  • Calculate Holds and Decent Holds for Relief Pitchers
    • What Is a Hold?
      • Analysis of reliever statistics.
      • Analysis of the hold statistic.
    • The Code
    • Decent Hold
• 6. Sabermetric Thinking
  • Hacks 6071: Introduction
    • Thinking About Baseball
  • Calculate Expected Runs
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
      • What actually happened when teams bunted?
      • Is bunting ever a good strategy?
    • See Also
  • Calculate an Expected Hits Matrix
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Strikeouts and the count.
      • Extra base hits and the count.
      • Balls in play and the count.
  • Look for Evidence of Platoon Effects
    • Average Platoon Effects
    • Switch Hitters
    • Hacking the Hack
  • Significant Number of At Bats
    • Find the Distribution of At Bats
    • Statistical Significance
      • OBP, AVG, and accuracy.
      • Testing the hypothesis.
  • Find Clutch Players
    • Identify Clutch Players
    • Measure Player Performance in Clutch Situations
    • Compare Players
    • Understanding the Results
    • The Code
      • Top players in clutch situations.
      • Significant clutch performances.
  • Calculate Expected Number of Wins
    • The Pythagorean Wins Formula
      • The code.
    • The Pythagenport Formula
    • The Back-of-the-Envelope Method
  • Measure Hits by Pitch Count
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
  • OBP, SLG, and Scoring Runs
    • The Data and the Code
    • The Results
  • Measure Skill Versus Luck
    • The Code
  • Odds of the Best Team Winning the World Series
  • Top 10 Bargain Outfielders
    • The Code
      • Prerequisites.
      • Define SQL query for getting raw data.
      • Import data into R.
    • Running the Hack
      • Identify common attributes.
      • Look at correlations.
      • Identify possible explanations for correlations.
      • Assign attribute scores.
      • Group players based on similarity.
      • Attach group membership to data set.
      • Transform salary variable.
      • Create linear regression model.
      • Compare predicted versus actual salaries.
      • Identify most-underpaid players.
      • Identify most-overpaid players.
    • Hacking the Hack
      • Vary the numbers of factors and/or number of clusters.
      • Look at different positions.
      • Look at different years.
      • Include more variables.
  • Fitting Game Scores to a Strength Model
    • The Data and the Code
    • Strength of Schedule
    • Conclusion
• 7. The Bullpen
  • Hacks 7275: Introduction
  • Start or Join a Fantasy League
    • The Basics
      • Methods of ranking teams.
      • Methods of picking teams.
      • Find or form a fantasy league.
    • See Also
  • Draft Your Fantasy Team
    • The Basics
      • Pick a closer.
      • Pick an RBI man.
      • Focus on AVG, not OBP.
    • Draft Tips from an Expert
      • Be patient with your money.
      • Perform the mustard toss.
      • Find a bargain.
      • Target your favorites.
      • Know thine enemy.
  • Make a Scoreboard Widget
    • The Code
    • Running the Hack
    • Hacking the Hack
    • See Also
  • Analyze Other Sports
    • Possessions
    • Clock Strategy
    • See Also
• A. Where to Learn More Stuff
  • Baseball Books
  • Baseball Web Sites
  • Statistics and Data Mining Books
  • Databases and Computer Languages
• B. Abbreviations
• Index
• About the Author
• Colophon
• Copyright

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