Measuring Impact of Nuclear Power on CO2 Emissions. Case of Poland

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1. Introduction  7

 

1. 1. Power sector and GHG emissions              7
   2. Polish nuclear power plant program           9
   3. Motivation    12

 

1. Energy policy and GHG emissions              17
   1. Energy mix issues         17
   2. Analytical review of official strategic documents      24
      1. Analysis of The Chancellery of the Prime Minister        25
      2. Scenarios of the Warsaw Institute for Economic Studies             30
      3. The assumptions of the Ministry of Energy    32
      4. Forecasts of the Energy Market Agency         33
      5. Deloitte report for the Ministry of Economy  35
      6. Scenario analysis “Coal in the Polish energy sector by 2050”          37
   3. Differences and similarities in the results of studies and their sources      42
   4. Recommended approach and recent developments  46

 

1. Estimates of costs of nuclear energy        51
   1. Determinants of lifetime projection cost   51
      1. Capital costs      51
      2. Operating costs                55
      3. Other costs       57
   2. Cost estimation model and assumptions    59
   3. Results          65
   4. Conclusion     69

 

1. Input-output methods for power system analyses            71
   1. Data for modelling       71
   2. Classical models of input-output analysis   74
      1. Basic models    74
      2. Applications of fundamental models             79
   3. Multipliers of IOA         83
   4. Forecasting of technical coefficients          86
   5. Including a new activity               88
   6. Modelling energy and emissions 91
      1. General approach             92
      2. Equations of air pollution from fuel combustion           95

 

1. IAEA Empower model and its properties                99
   1. IAEA models for energy planning                99
   2. Theoretical model        101
   3. Implementation of the model for Poland 105
      1. Data collection and adjustment       105
      2. Implementation and launch of the model    106
   4. Exploring properties of the model             109
      1. Scenarios          109
      2. Analysis of the results    118

 

1. Impact of Nuclear Power on CO2 Emissions in Poland            127
   1. Empower.pl.cc              127
   2. Simulation Assumptions             128
      1. Economy           128
      2. Nuclear program costs   130
      3. Demand for electricity and power generation mix      133
   3. Scenarios and results    145
      1. Change of power structure and power mix    146
      2. Changes in energy efficiency          148
   4. Simulation results        149

 

1. Conclusions and recommendations       159

 

References         163

Appendix            167

List of Figures     175

List of Tables      177

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